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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201452
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying
to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC
SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images
at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers
yields an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the
cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the
cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler
waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin.  In
addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global
models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation
of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at
2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical
ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to
the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest
around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the
track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west
of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model
consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila