Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162044
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Although there has been sporadic and disorganized convection mainly 
to the southwest of the center of Ivette today, this system lacks 
sufficient organized, deep convection to qualify as a tropical 
cyclone.  Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory.  The initial 
intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on the satellite intensity 
estimate from TAFB.  Some additional sporadic bursts of convection 
may occur over the next day or two while the remnant low is over 
marginally warm waters.  However, persistent strong easterly 
vertical wind shear associated with a large upper-level anticyclone 
to the north of the system should prevent any significant convective 
reorganization for the next several days.

Ivette has continued its motion westward at 5 kt.  Over the next day 
or so, the system should turn west-northwestward in the low-level 
flow.  A building low-level ridge to the northwest of Ivette should 
eventually steer the remnants westward and then west-southwestward 
until it opens up into a trough in a few days.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch