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Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 252043
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Satellite images during the last 24 hours indicate that Newton has 
not produced much convection, and a brief burst overnight was too 
ephemeral to qualify as organized enough for a tropical cyclone.  
Thus, this system has degenerated to a remnant low, and this is the 
last NHC advisory.  The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, assuming 
some spin down of the vortex since this morning.  The remnant low 
should continue moving southwestward for the few days before opening 
up into a trough.  At the same time, the system should gradually 
weaken.  This solution is consistent with the previous forecast and 
the consensus aids.

For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 18.4N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 17.6N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 16.4N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 15.1N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2022 20:43:34 UTC