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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Forecast Discussion (Text)


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753 
WTPZ45 KNHC 130239
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Cristina has lacked deep convection for more than 12 hours and is 
now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The system has therefore 
become a remnant low and this is the last NHC advisory. The 
estimated intensity is 30 kt, assuming some spin down has occurred 
since the last advisory.

Cristina is moving westward near 10 kt, and low-level easterly flow 
should steer the remnant low on this general heading for the next 
few days. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures of 
about 23 deg C that will prevent the redevelopment of organized 
convection. Cristina should continue to gradually spin down during 
the next 2-3 days until it opens into a trough and dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 20.7N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Jul-2020 02:40:08 UTC