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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060232
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi 
of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets 
the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial 
intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the 
circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity 
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A 
pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the 
center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of 
the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 
26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical 
wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the 
current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent 
any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near 
the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken 
and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should 
continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or 
southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the 
weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is 
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the 
consensus track model TVCE.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on 
Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart