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000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250232 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Significant deep convection associated with the depression dissipated about 18 hours ago. Minor shower and thunderstorm activity has been ongoing since earlier this afternoon just south of the center, but it is not large enough in areal coverage to be considered organized and it has recently been waning. The latest Dvorak estimates are T1.0/2.0 from TAFB and Too Weak to Classify from SAB, therefore the system is being declared a remnant low with maximum winds of 25 kt. The remnant low is expected to move westward or west-southwestward at 12-14 kt within the trade wind flow during the next couple of days. Strong northwesterly mid-level shear is currently affecting the low, and the shear is expected to increase within a deeper layer of the atmosphere over the next 24 hours. This, along with a dry and subsident environment, should prevent significant deep convection from redeveloping, although occasional bursts of convection cannot be ruled out. The NHC forecast now shows the low opening up into a trough and dissipating by 48 hours, although this could occur sooner according to the GFS and ECMWF forecast surface wind fields. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 14.6N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 13.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2023 02:32:50 UTC