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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 141437
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Former Tropical Depression Four-E has been producing only small
bursts of convection for the past 18 h or so.  The system is moving
over progressively cooler water and into a more stable air mass, so
re-development of organized convection appears unlikely.  Thus, the
system is being downgraded to a remnant low pressure area.  The
global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate by
36 h at the latest, and the NHC forecast follows this scenario.

The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the
west later today, with this general motion continuing until
dissipation.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.  For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 18.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  15/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/1200Z 18.6N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 18.5N 121.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Jul-2019 14:37:17 UTC