Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTPZ44 KNHC 250232

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Significant deep convection associated with the depression 
dissipated about 18 hours ago.  Minor shower and thunderstorm 
activity has been ongoing since earlier this afternoon just south of 
the center, but it is not large enough in areal coverage to be 
considered organized and it has recently been waning.  The latest 
Dvorak estimates are T1.0/2.0 from TAFB and Too Weak to Classify 
from SAB, therefore the system is being declared a remnant low with 
maximum winds of 25 kt.

The remnant low is expected to move westward or west-southwestward 
at 12-14 kt within the trade wind flow during the next couple of 
days.  Strong northwesterly mid-level shear is currently affecting 
the low, and the shear is expected to increase within a deeper layer 
of the atmosphere over the next 24 hours.  This, along with a dry 
and subsident environment, should prevent significant deep 
convection from redeveloping, although occasional bursts of 
convection cannot be ruled out.  The NHC forecast now shows the low 
opening up into a trough and dissipating by 48 hours, although this 
could occur sooner according to the GFS and ECMWF forecast surface 
wind fields.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at


INIT  25/0300Z 15.0N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/1200Z 14.9N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 14.6N 131.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 13.9N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2023 02:32:50 UTC