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Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ44 KNHC 060242

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

After the low- and mid-level centers of Pilar decoupled this 
morning, the system has failed to produce any deep convection near 
the center.  Although the system is still located over warm SSTs, 
dry mid-level air and strong mid-level shear is likely to prevent 
organized deep convection from returning.  Therefore, Pilar has 
become a post-tropical remnant low.  The initial wind speed has been 
lowered to 30 kt, based on a blend of the available satellite 
estimates, but this could be generous.  The system could still 
produce a few bursts of deep convection during the next day or so, 
but it should continue to gradually spin down.  The global model 
guidance indicates that the circulation will degenerate into a 
trough of low pressure within 2-3 days, if not sooner.

They cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or two as the low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the
system weakens.  Since the system has become vertically shallow, the
NHC track is along the left or south side of the guidance envelop
between the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), and the GFS
and UKMET ensemble means.

This is the last NHC advisory on Pilar. Additional information
on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at


INIT  06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown