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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion (Text)


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509 
WTPZ43 KNHC 220858
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

A small but growing burst of deep convection has resumed near the
center of Kiko, but the cyclone is considerably weaker than earlier
today. ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 30-35 kt, and
35 kt will be the initial intensity.  Within about 24 hours, Kiko
has a chance to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters in a
lighter shear region.  Model agreement is in fairly good agreement
on tenacious Kiko intensifying once again.  However, Kiko should
resume weakening again in about 3 days due to a significant
increase in shear and cooler waters, and hopefully the next 48 hours
are the last hurrah of Kiko.

Kiko is moving southwestward tonight at about 7 kt.  The storm
should continue to lose latitude for about the next 24 hours due to
the orientation of a ridge to the northwest. After that time,
the western portion of an incoming mid-latitude trough is forecast
to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn
sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then
expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back
to the southwest.  No significant changes were made to the sinuous
forecast track and, if Kiko survives as long as predicted below, it
would end up one of the 10 longest-lasting tropical cyclones in
eastern Pacific history.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Sep-2019 08:59:40 UTC