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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161448
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center 
has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes, 
and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes 
embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).  Despite 
the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the 
system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep 
convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is 
therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of 
25 kt.  Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should 
cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within 
the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days.

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk 
a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour 
heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt).  The bulk of 
the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward 
motion later today and then maintain a steady west to 
west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level 
trade winds.  The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the 
previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the 
southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south 
of the previous forecast.

This is the last advisory on Carlos.  For additional information on 
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header 
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z  8.6N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  17/0000Z  8.6N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1200Z  8.7N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z  9.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z  9.2N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Jun-2021 14:48:14 UTC