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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours.  The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data.  The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt.  The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period.  A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Oct-2019 20:39:51 UTC