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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 242051

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL     EP132019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

Kiko is now a swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection in the
face of 40 kt of southwest shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The
initial intensity was lowered to 35 kt, though ADT and ASCAT passes
just coming in suggest this may be a bit generous. Strong southwest
shear is expected to continue to prevent the development of
persistent deep convection through the forecast period. This will
allow the low-level center to turn westward, and then southwestward
following the trade wind flow and weaken. The current forecast lies
very close to the previous one. Without deep convection, Kiko's wind
field should continue to steadily spin down.

Kiko will be moving into the central Pacific basin this afternoon
and subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center. Products will continue to be available on the web


INIT  24/2100Z 18.0N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster R Ballard