Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Celia's rapidly deteriorating cloud pattern consists of a 
fragmented curved band located in the northeast quadrant of the
tropical cyclone.  A 1704 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated
a couple of 35 kt peak winds in that banding feature, and
the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt in deference to this
surface wind data.

Celia is expected to continue traversing cool 24C waters through
the period.  This negative contribution and a stable surrounding 
air mass should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours.  The official intensity 
forecast is based on a blend of the various intensity consensus 
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt.  A mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of Celia should
keep this direction and forward speed through dissipation toward
the end of the week.  The NHC track forecast is an update
of the previous one and lies close to the reliable NOAA HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 20.9N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 21.6N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 22.3N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 23.0N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts