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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the
low-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a
ragged-looking area of deep convection.  Data from a recent
scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have
decreased to near 35 kt.  North-northeasterly vertical wind shear
should prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global
models show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days.  The
official forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a
depression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model
consensus.  Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown
here.

The storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9
kt.  Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western
periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico
for the next couple of days.  The official forecast is somewhat
faster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical
model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 14.2N  97.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.2N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch