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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152035
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600
UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640
UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the
coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could
have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken
and then dissipate shortly after landfall.

ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a
bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate
355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through
dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching
longwave trough to the west.

Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant
rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
by your local weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan