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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion


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507 
WTPZ42 KNHC 192033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

Linda continues to come unhinged. Dry and stable air has wrapped 
almost completely into the cyclone's circulation, as indicated by 
the low-level stratocumulus cloud field that now primarily 
characterizes the system. Linda has now lacked organized deep 
convection for nearly 6 h. A blend of the T- and CI- numbers from 
the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the 
cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 45 kt. Cool SSTs of 
24-25 C and dry, stable air should prevent any significant deep 
convection from returning over the next couple of days. Therefore, 
Linda could be declared post-tropical by tonight. The low will reach 
warmer waters in a few days. However, by that time, strong 
southwesterly shear within a dry environment should inhibit 
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should should open into a 
trough early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains 
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

Over the past several hours Linda has moved almost due west with a 
12 h motion of about 275/15 kt. Steered by a low- mid-level ridge to 
its north, a general westward motion is expected  until the system 
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the 
previous one, and is close to the tightly packed track guidance. 

Linda is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be 
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Linda 
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific 
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3 
and WMO header WTPA23 PHFO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 19.7N 139.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.9N 141.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  20/1800Z 20.2N 144.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 20.4N 147.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z 20.8N 149.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 21.5N 153.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 22.0N 158.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto