Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression Rick Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


983 
WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Rick Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Rick has continued to move farther inland over the mountainous 
terrain of Mexico. The core of the cyclone collapsed earlier this 
afternoon, and what remains of the deep convection near it's 
estimated center is gradually dissipating. The strongest convection 
now associated with the system is located along the coast, and an 
earlier ASCAT overpass showed that the peak winds in those showers 
and thunderstorms were only 20 to 25 kt. There are very few surface 
observations near where the estimated center of Rick is located. 
Therefore, based primarily on the degradation in the satellite 
appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been lowered to 
30 kt. 

Rick's estimated motion is 355/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to 
the east of the depression should keep it on this same general 
trajectory farther inland over Mexico into tonight. Therefore, 
continued weakening is inevitable. Visible satellite images indicate 
that the low-level center of Rick is becoming diffuse. Although the 
NHC forecast shows dissipation in 24 h, this may occur much sooner. 


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 20.0N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto