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Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 201436
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Blas has been unable 
to produce organized deep convection near its center for almost 24 
h. Although a couple of sporadic bursts of convection have occurred 
to its north this morning, this is not deemed enough to maintain its 
status as a tropical cyclone. Since the system has degenerated into 
a remnant low, this will be the final NHC advisory on Blas. The 
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak current 
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.

The remnant low is moving westward at 275/4 kt, and it is forecast 
to continue moving slowly westward to west-northwestward over the 
next couple of days. This will bring the system over cooler waters 
and into a drier mid-level environment with increasing deep-layer 
southerly shear. Therefore, the remnant low is expected to gradually 
weaken and open into a trough by Wednesday.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 19.2N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart