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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ42 KNHC 160248

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Although deep convection associated with the area of low pressure
near the southeastern coast of Mexico has increased since this
afternoon, the overall organization of the system has not increased
enough for it to be considered a tropical cyclone.  The system,
however, is predicted to become a tropical storm before it reaches
the southeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday, and NHC has initiated
advisories on this system as a potential tropical cyclone.  The
government of Mexico has elected to issued a tropical storm watch
for a portion of the coast of southeastern Mexico.  The initial
intensity of the system is estimated to be 30 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data.  The disturbance is located over very warm
waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear,
which should allow for some strengthening before the system moves
inland.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for the disturbance to
become a tropical storm in 12 hours, and it is in good agreement
with the statistical guidance and the global models which show some
slight deepening.  The system should quickly weaken and dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico after landfall.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 300/9 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to
steer the disturbance west-northwestward during the next day or so,
and this motion should bring the center on the coast within 24
hours.  The track guidance is in good agreement and the official
forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat with this system will be heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico during
the next day or two.


INIT  16/0300Z 13.7N  93.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  16/1200Z 14.6N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  17/0000Z 16.2N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 17.6N  97.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown