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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion


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094 
WTPZ41 KNHC 300258 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  11...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Corrected Central Pacific Hurricane Center web link

Erick has finally become a hurricane.  Microwave and visible data
indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been
increasing near the center.  All of the satellite agencies agree on
an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind
speed.  The environment is expected to generally be conducive for
continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick
could still attain major hurricane status during that time.
Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost
all of the guidance.  This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in
the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit,
showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory.

The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a
longer-term motion is 280/16.  The mid-level ridge to the north
is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a
slower west-northwestward track.  Track guidance is more divergent
tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than
the rest of the models.  It is notable, however, that the models
have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been
biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days.  Thus,
the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous
one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still
behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity.

This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is
crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin.  Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake