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Tropical Storm Agatha Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281433
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become
better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a
series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent
trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt.

Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward
speed.  Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of
285/4 kt.  The storm is expected to gradually make a turn
to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster
northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the
flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest.
This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on
Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one
and near the various consensus aids.

The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental
conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a
moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on
Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in
the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid
intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so.
Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast
remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become
a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected
until landfall.

Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely
be required later today.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico
Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in
effect for portions of this area.  Interests should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday.  This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 13.2N  98.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 13.4N  98.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 13.8N  98.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 14.2N  98.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 14.8N  97.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 15.8N  96.6W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1200Z 16.8N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-May-2022 14:34:03 UTC