WTNT45 KNHC 250840
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022
Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further. While
occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still
occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this
convection lacks organization. The system no longer meets the
definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared
a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.
Strong southwesterly shear greater than 40 kt and a high
statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the
regeneration of organized convection during the next several days.
The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low
pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue today while the cyclone
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge.
Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward
the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention
ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic.
The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and
is similar to the previous advisory.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and
available on the web at
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 23.6N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW