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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 130834
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number  52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong 
convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery, 
surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has 
merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone 
off the southeastern coast of the United States.  The scatterometer 
data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone 
northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong 
convective region and their reliability is uncertain.  This, the 
initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt.  Eta is 
forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is 
absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h.

The initial motion is 060/18.  The post-tropical cyclone cyclone 
should continue this general motion with an increase in forward 
speed until it is absorbed.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center 
on Eta.   Additional information on this system can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 33.3N  76.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  13/1800Z 35.0N  73.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  14/0600Z 37.9N  66.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/1800Z 41.1N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Friday, 13-Nov-2020 08:34:45 UTC