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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 191450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the
process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.  Satellite
images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and
drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the
circulation.  Deep convection is most organized to the north and
west of the partially exposed low-level center.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.

A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been
aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that
Humberto will become fully extratropical later today.  Despite the
fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of
hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt.  A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the
mid- to upper-level low.  After that, a faster east-northeast or
east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The cyclone should be absorbed by
another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north
Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 36.8N  60.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 38.8N  58.9W   90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 41.2N  57.6W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 43.2N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 44.6N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi