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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Discussion


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483 
WTNT43 KNHC 100248
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

The structure of Mindy this evening has become quite diffuse, with a
linear band of convection mostly associated with a prominent outflow
boundary emanating away from the system. The last-light visible
low-level cloud motions gave the impression that Mindy was opening
up into a trough, with southwesterly flow ahead and northeasterly
flow immediately behind the estimated center. Indeed, a ASCAT-A pass
valid at 0002 UTC suggested that Mindy no longer has closed cyclonic
flow on its northeast side, with a lack of easterly wind vectors in
this sector of the system. In addition, a rapidly advancing frontal
boundary has already moved off of the Carolina coast and will
soon be merging with the leftover vort-max associated with Mindy.
The accumulation of all this evidence indicates that Mindy no
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be
the final advisory on the system.

The post-tropical remains of Mindy have continued to accelerate to
the east-northeast this evening at 070/25 kt, moving almost as
quickly as the the maximum sustained winds, which is another reason
why the circulation is likely no longer closed. This motion should
continue for the next 12-24 hours with a gradual slowdown until what
remains of the circulation becomes indistinguishable from the
frontal boundary it is becoming embedded in.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 32.5N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  10/1200Z 33.2N  71.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/0000Z 34.1N  67.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin