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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 250836
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the cloud pattern of Epsilon is beginning to expand over 
the northwestern portion of the circulation as the hurricane begins 
its extratropical transition, the storm continues to produce 
inner-core convection.  Recent shortwave infrared satellite imagery 
suggest that there is some northeast-to-southwest tilt between the 
mid- and low-level centers. Since there has been little overall 
change in the inner-core structure since the previous advisory, the 
initial intensity is held at 65 kt in agreement with the earlier 
ASCAT data.

Epsilon is moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and 
will be over much colder SSTs later this morning.  This, along with 
an approaching baroclinic zone, should cause Epsilon to quickly lose 
its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical low by 
later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to remain a large 
and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next day or 
so.  The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will 
be absorbed by a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic 
within 48 hours.

The hurricane continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial 
motion estimate of 050/26 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration 
is expected through tonight, and rather faster northeastward motion 
is forecast until the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by the 
larger extratropical low Monday night.  The track guidance remains 
tightly clustered and the new NHC forecast track is essentially an 
update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 42.8N  53.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 45.5N  47.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/0600Z 49.7N  36.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/1800Z 54.7N  26.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown