Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


230 
WTNT42 KNHC 260236
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Epsilon no longer 
has the structure of a tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation 
is stretched out along a north-south axis, with an area of lighter 
winds noted near and north of the ill-defined center. Furthermore, 
infrared cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours as 
convection wanes near the center. Therefore, Epsilon has been 
declared a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC 
advisory for the system.

A partial 22Z ASCAT-A overpass showed at least 55-kt winds in the 
southern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports keeping the 
initial intensity at 60 kt. Post-tropical Epsilon is firmly embedded 
in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone will continue racing 
northeastward at around 35-40 kt for the next day or so. The cyclone 
will remain a very powerful and dangerous storm until it is absorbed 
by another large extratropical low pressure system over the 
northeastern Atlantic. The global models remain in very good 
agreement with this scenario, and no notable changes were made to 
the official NHC forecast.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 48.6N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/1200Z 52.1N  30.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  27/0000Z 57.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky