000
FOPZ15 KNHC 101454
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)  16(16)  22(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  15(26)   X(26)   X(26)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)  31(31)  36(67)   4(71)   X(71)   X(71)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  25(33)   5(38)   X(38)   X(38)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   8( 8)  56(64)  12(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)  21(21)   9(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 38  48(86)   6(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X  33(33)  10(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X  13(13)   7(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MANZANILLO     34 71  18(89)   2(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
MANZANILLO     50  1  20(21)   3(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MANZANILLO     64  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN