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Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 260236
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022               
0300 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34 12   9(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

20N 115W       34 17  58(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
20N 115W       50  1  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
20N 115W       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN