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Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 120848
PWSAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018               
0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                    

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X  46(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

YARMOUTH NS    34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HYANNIS MA     34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NANTUCKET MA   34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MONTAUK POINT  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEAN CITY MD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WALLOPS CDA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

OCEANA NAS VA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN