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Post-Tropical Cyclone Felicia Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPA41 PHFO 210234
TCDCP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Felicia Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062021
500 PM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

A small area of deep convection that flared up early this morning 
has dissipated. Since then, what's left of Felicia is just a low 
cloud swirl moving within the trade wind flow, with thin high clouds 
moving over it from the west. The initial motion is 255/14 kt. 
Felicia is moving in a hostile environment, with dry, stable 
conditions, vertical wind shear greater than 20 kt, and sea 
surface temperatures around 25 to 26C. While there may be isolated 
flare-ups of deep convection over the next couple of days, 
reintensification under these conditions is not likely. Thus, 
Felicia has been declared a post-tropical remnant low. The remnant 
circulation of Felicia should continue to spin down and the global 
models open up the circulation into a trough by the end of the week.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane 
Center on Felicia. Additional information on this system can be 
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header 
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 14.9N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  21/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z 13.9N 145.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1200Z 13.3N 148.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z 13.0N 151.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama