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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181205

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N81W to 28N93W. A 
stationary front continues from 28N93W to S Mexico near 18N94W. A
gale is W of front and S of 21N. Seas are 08-14 ft. Expect the 
gale to continue until 19/0600 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 03N-17N, 
moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum in 
moisture around the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is E
of the wave axis from 09N-15N between 24W-30W. Scattered moderate 
convection is W of the wave axis from 05N-15N between 37W-43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 05N-21N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is associated with the wave, and
there is a local maximum in SSMI TPW. Scattered moderate convection
is from 14N-17N between 70W-74W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 07N-20N, moving W
at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum in moisture 
around the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N- 
19N between 81W-85W, and from 09N-15N between 76W-82W. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W 
to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 07N33W. The ITCZ 
resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N40W to and extends to the 
coast of South America near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 01N-07N between 10W-25W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near Trinidad
from 08N-13N between 57W-63W.   


A front is over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. A Gale 
is in the cold sector S of 21W. See the special features section 
above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over 
the W Gulf S of 29N between 92W-98W. Scattered showers are over 
the SE Gulf from 21N-25N between 85W-89W. The remainder of the 
Gulf has mainly 10-20 kt E surface winds, and mostly fair 
weather. The front is expected to weaken Fri. A second cold front
will enter the Gulf waters on Sat. The second front will stall 
from central Florida to southern Texas on Sunday night, and then 
it will lift N through early next week. 


Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See above.

An upper level low is centered S of E Cuba near 18N76W enhancing 
scattered showers from the Leeward Islands to E Cuba. 

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail the next several days, 
except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, approach to 
Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the Lee of eastern Cuba 
through the end of the week, and then returning near the approach 
to Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola next week.


An upper level trough passes through 32N43W, to a 29N50W cyclonic
circulation center, to 22N58W, to 18N63W in the Caribbean Sea, 
and eventually to Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 45W/47W 
from 17N to 31N. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from
20N to 31N between 34W and 66W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N21W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward
between Africa and 30W.

Gentle to moderate return flow N of 27N and moderate to fresh, 
locally strong, trade winds S of 27N, will prevail through tonight
with high pres NE of the area. A backdoor cold front will drop S 
of 31N on Thursday, with freshening winds and building seas 
through Friday, before decreasing on Saturday. Another cold front 
may enter the NW part of the area on Saturday night, once again 
with increasing winds and building seas behind the front through 
Monday, with the front weakening by Monday night.

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