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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 191450
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Sep-2019 14:51:08 UTC