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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220851
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of
convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low.  The initial
intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data.  With no models
showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow
weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant
low later today.  The new intensity forecast is basically an update
of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds.

Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8
kt.  The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-
northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours.  The new forecast
track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake


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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Sep-2019 08:51:33 UTC