ZCZC WNHTCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KWNH DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 44 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092017 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 92.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF MONROE LOUISIANA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flood and flash flood warnings and watches are in effect from eastern Texas through parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and into western portions of the Tennessee Valley and the lower Ohio Valley. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 92.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and is expected to continue this motion over the next 48 hours. This forecast track would take Harvey into northwestern Mississippi by Thursday afternoon, the western Tennessee Valley region on Friday, and into the lower Ohio Valley early Saturday before anticipated dissipation by Saturday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain from far eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northeastward across western to central Tennessee, western to central Kentucky and into southern Ohio. Locally higher totals of 6 to 10 inches possible across far northern Mississippi, western Tennessee into southwest Kentucky. These rains will enhance the flash flooding risk across these areas, especially from far northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and into far southwest Kentucky. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. the expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river and small stream flooding. Do not attempt to travel in the affected area if you are in a safe place. Do not drive into flooded roadways. For more information on rainfall totals, please see the Storm Summary avilable at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Santorelli FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 32.3N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/1800Z 33.5N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/0600Z 35.1N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 36.3N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/0600Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 60H 02/1800Z 38.7N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN