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Eastern North Pacific 2-Day GTWO
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Eastern North Pacific 5-Day GTWO
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015
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Baja California peninsula northeastward over the southern and central portions of the Gulf of California are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Although the thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated this morning, the system is forecast to move northward into northwestern mainland Mexico tonight limiting its development potential. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Brown

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