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000
ABNT20 KNHC 170543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is located about 100 miles southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Although the circulation of this system has become a little better defined since yesterday, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and located mainly well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&& Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ Forecaster Pasch

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