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534
ABNT20 KNHC 241754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Kirk, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and continues to issue advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system is producing showers and thunderstorms along with winds to gale force over the northern portion of the wave. Redevelopment of this system is possible over the next few days until it encounters highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more conducive for development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central Atlantic by Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Pasch

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