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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120853
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Apr 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0745 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 06N92W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N101W to 06N115W to 04N128W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N TO 06.5N between 115W and 128W, and from 01.5N to 08N between 128W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California, and extends southeast to offshore of Cabo Corrientes along 112W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over Mexico is supporting fresh northerly winds off of Baja California Norte, and moderate winds off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. Seas are in the 5-9 ft range west of Baja California, 3-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte through Tue as the ridge persists. Increased NW swell off Baja California Norte will prevail into Wed, peaking at 7-11 ft Mon morning, highest across the outer waters. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere into Wed. Winds and seas are expected to diminish slightly areawide Wed through Fri as the high pressure weakens.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mostly onshore winds prevail across the forecast area, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Little change in wind and wave conditions are expected into Tue, before moderate offshore gap winds begin across the Papagayo region. Moderate sized SW swell crossing the equator tonight will move through the offshore waters Mon night through Thu to raise seas slightly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Deep layered low pressure persists W of the NW waters between 145W and 150W. This is producing moderate SE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft across the far NW waters from 27N to 30N. High pressure extends southward across the northern waters between 118W and 140W. This is producing a modest pressure gradient over the forecast waters south of the ridge. Moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail there. Little significant change is expected the next couple of days. High pressure will weaken and shift into the northern waters Wed through Thu, and slightly strengthen trade winds north of the ITCZ. Northerly swell will propagate south of 30N across the waters between 118W and 130W through Wed. Seas over this area will build to around 9-11 ft early this morning then gradually diminish to 5-8 ft by late Tue.

$$ Stripling

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