000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090400
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 09 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is over
northern Colombia, west-southwestward to 07N78W to 09N100W to
12N110W and to 11N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ begins and continues to low pressure near 09N118W 1008
mb and to 04N30W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen within 120 NM N of the
trough between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W-119W, and within 30 nm
of the ITCZ between 119W-122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure centered N of the area extends a broad
ridge southward across the regional Pacific waters and weakly
southeast over the offshore waters of Baja California to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure extends northward along the
entire coast of California. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and this area of low pressure is generally allowing
for moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja
California N of Cabo San Lucas and for moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds S of Cabo San Lucas. Seas across most
of the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except 7 to 10 ft N of Punta
Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are moderate,
southwest to west in direction except for gentle west winds over
the central part of the Gulf. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 3 ft,
except 4 to 5 ft in southwest swell at the entrance of the Gulf
and 3 to 4 ft over the northern part. Elsewhere over the south
and southwestern Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to
moderate, west to northwest in direction, and become onshore
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW
swell.
For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well N of the
local area will shift northeastward through Thu, then drift
westward and weaken through the weekend. This will maintain
moderate northwest winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San
Lazaro and generally moderate to fresh northwest winds S of Cabo
San Lazaro through the weekend. NW swell will continue to move
into the Baja offshore waters through Fri, with seas in excess of
8 ft persisting across the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia
through early Thu evening, before subsiding. Gentle to locally
moderate west to northwest winds along with moderate seas are
expected elsewhere across the S and southwestern Mexican offshore
waters through Sun night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over most
of the near and offshore waters N of about 03N and E of 95W. This
activity reaches eastward into southwestern Caribbean. This
active weather is occurring about the monsoonal circulation
that is becoming seasonally established across the region. Some
of this activity may be accompanied by gusty winds at times,
moderate to rough seas and frequent lighting when the activity
can also exist with the activity once it develops into stronger
clusters, perhaps during late overnight hours and into the
morning. Winds remain light and variable and seas moderate, 4 to
5 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW with 5 to 6
ft seas in S swell.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 09N,
through Fri, which will feed moisture into the scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms currently across the area
waters. This active weather will shift slowly westward of 90W by
Fri afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail
elsewhere along with moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise,
new southerly swell entering the region today will maintain seas
of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build
briefly to near 8 ft Fri night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is centered well N of the
discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across
the subtropical waters between 110W and 150W. The gradient
related to this ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest
to north winds are north of 25N between 120W and 125W, while
gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are present
elsewhere north of 20N between 115W and 125W. These winds
become northeast to east est of 125W. Seas across this area N of
20N are 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell, except 8 to 10 ft north of
28N and E of about 135W. S of 20N between the ridge and the ITCZ
and W of 120W, moderate to locally fresh northeast to northeast
to east winds along with seas of and 6 to 8 ft seas in northeast
swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds are present along with seas of 6 to 8 ft due to
mixed southeast and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle
variable winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas
to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri,
then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the
Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 10 ft will
change little through Thu afternoon, then subside below 8 ft late
by Fri night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.
$$
Aguirre
