Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292144
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2126 UTC Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to beyond 04N140W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the north central Pacific east- southeast toward Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Norte, with generally moderate NW winds off Baja California and over the Gulf of California. The winds off Baja California Norte have started to increase slightly this afternoon, as high pressure builds west of the area. Concurrent altimeter satellite data shows seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time over Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, NW winds will continue to increase this evening off Baja California Norte, between the strengthening high pressure west of the region, and the low pressure over central Mexico. The high pressure will weaken through mid-week allowing for winds off Baja California to diminish. Gentle west to northwest winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec through the period, except for a brief pulse of fresh to strong early Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the western Caribbean will maintain pulses of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and off Nicaragua through this afternoon and tonight. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue through this morning. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters through through the middle of the upcoming week.

No significant shower or thunderstorms are observed at this time over the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge reaches from west to east north of 25N. This is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade wind flow from about 08N to 20N west of 120W, as noted in various scatterometer satellite passes and buoy data from the past several hours over the deep tropics. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed seas of 8 to 12 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds. These are primarily shorter period wave related to the trade wind flow, but also with components of longer period northerly swell. Farther east, light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the tropical east Pacific. A surface trough persists along 135W near the ITCZ. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near this trough.

Little change is expected in this pattern through early next week. The ridge will weaken into the middle part of the week, allowing for winds to diminish and wave heights to subside west of 120W.

$$ Christensen

Home