AXPZ20 KNHC 041541

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 10N95W to 1010 mb low pres located near 08N121W to a second 1011 mb low pres situated near 07N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N to 08N E of 90 to the coast of Colombia, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 110W, and from 05N to 10N between 116W and 128W.


A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh NW winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell across this area. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable with seas in the 1 to 2 ft range, expect 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to control the weather pattern across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through at least Mon with little change in winds and seas. As a result, expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. A developing low pressure over the northern Gulf of California will support fresh to locally strong S to SW winds at night Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas at night through the forecast period. Moderate NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle speeds on Mon.


Light to gentle SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen across the Central America offshore waters while gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the 6 to 8 ft in SW swell are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3 to 5 ft offshore the W coast of Colombia, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail through mid-week. Cross equatorial SW swell, with seas of 8 to 9 ft, will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today, reaching the offshore waters of W Panama and Costa Rica by tonight with seas building to 8 ft. This swell event will gradually subside Mon night into Tue.


High pressure well N of the area, anchored by a 1031 mb high located near 44N140W, extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W generating a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Winds increase some to moderate to fresh speeds on the northern semicircle of the aforementioned low pressure centers located along the monsoon. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open waters in mixed swell with the exception of 7 to 9 ft S of 06N between 93W and 117W due to S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through mid- week while the low pressure centers along the monsoon trough will drift westward. Long period S to SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across most of the waters S of 10N between 92W and 110W by tonight. Seas generated by strong northerly winds just W of the State of California will push S of 30N Mon through Tue, with seas 8 to 10 ft affecting roughly the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W.

$$ GR