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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060840
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W to 07N95W. The ITCZ extends from 07N95W to 09N110W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 06N to 09N between 96W and 98W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 109W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as west of Baja California have diminished to moderate in the past few hours. Moderate winds are in the central Gulf of California with gentle winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft west of Baja California and 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight, increasing to fresh to strong Tue, diminishing Tue night. Fresh to strong SW winds will return Thu night, diminishing by Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Tue, diminishing Tue evening. Fresh NW to N winds are possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed. Light to gentle winds should prevail elsewhere through mid- week. A cold front may approach northern Baja California late this week resulting in freshening winds throughout the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes, and building seas west of Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is currently seen on satellite imagery along the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo early this morning, with seas near 6 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, locally to 7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through Tue night, then moderate to fresh through Thu. Fresh to strong winds may return late in the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh strong NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to around 25N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. South of the ITCZ, moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range over the area of strong winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except 7 to 9 ft north of 27N between 120W and 127W in fresh northerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W through early Tue due to the strong pressure gradient in that area. The fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft to the west of Baja California Norte will persist into early Tue. A weak cold front will move south of 30N Tue, reaching from 30N126W to 24N135W to 26N140W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are expected north of this front, before the front weakens by early Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front may approach the northern waters late this week, with building seas and freshening winds behind it.

$$ Lewitsky

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