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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080851
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure persists just north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N and west of 115W. Recent data from satellite altimeter and drifting buoys confirm significant wave heights of 8 to 14 ft from 10N to 25N and W of 115W, with peak seas of 12-14 ft from 17N to 21N and W of 132W. Seas W of 130W are dominated by steep NE waves at 7-9 seconds mixed with NW swell of 11-13 seconds. E of 130W, NW swell at 11-13 seconds dominates. East of 125W, these high seas will gradually subsiding tonight through Wed, and below 12 ft by Wed morning. West of 125W, seas will peak at 12 to 15 ft tonight, then diminish very slowly below 12 ft by Thursday morning, as the strong winds shift W of 140W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 00N82W. The ITCZ extends from 00N109W to 06.5N127W, then resumes from 06.5N130W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09.5N between 112W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing fresh to strong NNW winds across the Gulf of California, where seas are 5-8 ft across central portions and 6-9 ft southern portions. Fresh to strong NE gap winds are spilling into the Pacific waters offshore of Todos Santos, Mexico. Fresh N to NE gap winds are also spilling into the nearshore Pacific waters of central Baja. Large NW swell continues to move southeastward through the Baja offshore waters, with 8-11 ft seas reaching as far south as Socorro Island. See the Special Features section above for more details on this significant swell. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere along the coast of Mexico north of 19N, with 6-9 ft seas, diminishing to gentle speeds south of 19N, where seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure dominating the Baja California offshore waters will maintain fresh N to NE winds and 6-10 ft seas through tonight, with winds and seas then diminishing through Thu morning. Strong NNW winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will persist through Thu morning before diminishing modestly through Fri. Peak seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the southern Gulf tonight through Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early Thu, then increase to gale starting Fri night, and possibly increasing to storm force Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to 90W. In this area, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through Sat. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, then remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1034 mb high pressure remains centered just N of the area near 34N133W. The associated broad ridge is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the waters W of 115W tonight, to the N of 08N. Large NE wind generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through the regional waters to produce a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater. Please see the Special Features section for information concerning these significant seas.

East of 110W, seas are 6-8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak short wave trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of the ITCZ between 112W and 133W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 115W through tonight, then begin to drift NE and gradually weaken through Thu. Strong tradewinds and large seas to 12 ft and greater will prevail across the area west of 120W through tonight before diminishing from E to W through Thu. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu afternoon, accompaniedby large NW swell. Associated high pressure behind the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. The weakening front will approach the Baja offshore waters Sat producing another period of strong N to NE winds and large seas over the weekend.

$$ Stripling

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