000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080851
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure persists just
north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area
of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N
and west of 115W. Recent data from satellite altimeter and
drifting buoys confirm significant wave heights of 8 to 14 ft
from 10N to 25N and W of 115W, with peak seas of 12-14 ft from
17N to 21N and W of 132W. Seas W of 130W are dominated by steep NE
waves at 7-9 seconds mixed with NW swell of 11-13 seconds. E of
130W, NW swell at 11-13 seconds dominates. East of 125W, these
high seas will gradually subsiding tonight through Wed, and
below 12 ft by Wed morning. West of 125W, seas will peak at 12 to
15 ft tonight, then diminish very slowly below 12 ft by Thursday
morning, as the strong winds shift W of 140W. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 00N82W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N109W to 06.5N127W, then resumes from 06.5N130W
to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09.5N between 112W and 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing
fresh to strong NNW winds across the Gulf of California, where
seas are 5-8 ft across central portions and 6-9 ft southern
portions. Fresh to strong NE gap winds are spilling into the
Pacific waters offshore of Todos Santos, Mexico. Fresh N to NE
gap winds are also spilling into the nearshore Pacific waters of
central Baja. Large NW swell continues to move southeastward
through the Baja offshore waters, with 8-11 ft seas reaching as
far south as Socorro Island. See the Special Features section
above for more details on this significant swell. Moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere along the coast of
Mexico north of 19N, with 6-9 ft seas, diminishing to gentle
speeds south of 19N, where seas are 4-7 ft.
For the forecast, strong high pressure dominating the Baja
California offshore waters will maintain fresh N to NE winds and
6-10 ft seas through tonight, with winds and seas then
diminishing through Thu morning. Strong NNW winds in the central
and southern Gulf of California will persist through Thu morning
before diminishing modestly through Fri. Peak seas of 8-9 ft
will persist across the southern Gulf tonight through Wed
morning. Looking ahead, fresh to occasionally strong northerly
gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting
early Thu, then increase to gale starting Fri night, and
possibly increasing to storm force Sat morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo
region, extending offshore to 90W. In this area, seas of 6-8 ft
prevail. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf
of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas are 4-7 ft.
Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6
ft seas primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through
Sat. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, then
remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1034 mb high pressure remains centered just N of the area near
34N133W. The associated broad ridge is maintaining a large area
of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the waters W of 115W
tonight, to the N of 08N. Large NE wind generated seas are
combining with NW swell moving through the regional waters to
produce a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater. Please see
the Special Features section for information concerning these
significant seas.
East of 110W, seas are 6-8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere,
moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak short wave trough in
the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the ITCZ between
112W and 133W.
For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the waters
west of 115W through tonight, then begin to drift NE and gradually
weaken through Thu. Strong tradewinds and large seas to 12 ft and
greater will prevail across the area west of 120W through
tonight before diminishing from E to W through Thu. A new cold
front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu afternoon,
accompaniedby large NW swell. Associated high pressure behind
the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to
the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. The weakening front will
approach the Baja offshore waters Sat producing another period of
strong N to NE winds and large seas over the weekend.
$$
Stripling
