000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260300
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The equatorial trough extends from the coastal border of
Colombia and Panama to 08N94W. The ITCZ continues from 08N94W
to 07N115W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 78W and
89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
03.5N to 12.5N between 110W and 126W, and from 04.5N to 08.5N
between 128W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad surface ridge continues to dominate waters west of Baja
California, while a surface trough is over northern Mexico. The
pressure gradient between these two features is supporting
moderate to fresh northwesterly winds across the Baja California
waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in N-NW swell, except 7 to 8 ft
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate northerly winds and 2
to 4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Mainly
gentle W to NW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the
remainder of the central and southern Mexico offshore waters.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across
the northern and central Gulf of California will pulse to between
fresh and strong with locally near-gale force Fri evening
through early Sat morning. Strong high pressure across the East
Pacific will sustain moderate to fresh with locally strong
northerly winds west of Baja California and near the
Revillagigedo Islands, along with rough seas through Sat night.
As the high weakens starting Sun, both winds and seas should
gradually subside through early next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
An upper-level trough extending from the Tehuantepec region
northeastward across the NW Caribbean is supporting active
thunderstorms described above, from the offshore waters of Costa
Rico to coastal Colombia. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds
and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted in the Papagayo region, and
extend offshore only about 90 nm. Moderate N to NE winds with 3
to 4 ft seas are present at the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate, long-
period S swell exist off Ecuador and near the Galapagos Island.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found in the rest
of the offshore waters.
For the forecast, fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and
rough seas are expected at the Papagayo region through Fri
morning, then moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas through
Sat morning. Moderate to fresh N winds will linger in the Gulf of
Panama until late this evening. Gentle to moderate winds with
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A frontal trough curves southwestward from near the Channel
Islands, California to 27N122W, and is accompanied by overcast
low clouds and light rain. Otherwise, a broad ridge associated
with a 1031 mb high near 34N147W dominates the waters north of
the ITCZ and west of 120W. Moderate N to NE winds with seas at 5
to 6 ft dominate north of 21N and west of 120W. Moderate to
fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas exist from 07N to 21N and W of
110W, with locally strong winds and seas 8 to 10 ft west of
134W. Gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
in moderate, long-period S swell prevail near the ITCZ,
equatorial trough and southward.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds will
occasionally pulse to strong, along with seas at 6 to 9 ft seas
under the ridge. Meanwhile, the trough in the northern waters
will dissipate later this evening while shifting east. Moderate
to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are expected north
of 20N and east of 125W by Fri. Little change is forecast across
the remainder of the waters through early next week.
$$
Stripling
