Home


311
AXPZ20 KNHC 190838
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 UTC Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Octave is centered near 11.5N 126.4W at 19/0900 UTC moving NE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm NW quadrant of Octave. Octave is is forecast to weaken to a remnant low tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W N of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 85W and 87W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N66W to 18N104W to 12N120W. It then resumes west of T.S. Octave near 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N between 80W and 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted over waters from 11N to 20N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 09N to 11N between 132W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A set of large NW to N swell propagating across the Baja California offshore waters will spread southeastward and reach the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will continue across the Baja California Norte offshore zones through the weekend. Fresh to strong monsoonal flow will continue over the offshore waters south and southwest of the Tehuantepec region today. Strong northerly winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night and continue through Wed. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop in the northern and central Gulf of California late Sun night and continue through Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region through the middle of next week. SW swell between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands will spread northward across the forecast waters this weekend. The swell will start to subside early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about recently downgraded Tropical Depression Octave.

A large set of NW swell continues propagating across the northern waters tonight. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering the waters N of a line from 24N114W to 12N140W. The swell will continue propagating southeastward through the weekend. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover the waters north of 10N and west of 110W by Sun, with seas 12 ft or greater north of 27N between 119W and 123W. This swell will gradually decay early next week, and seas will subside below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue.

Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends across the waters mainly north of 20N. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with fresh to strong monsoon flow noted S of the monsoon trough between 105W and 117W.

$$ AL

Home