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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171515
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1515 UTC Wed Jul 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 86W is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N within 180 nm west of the wave axis.

A tropical wave with axis near 98.5W is moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N within 90 nm of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for gradual development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

A tropical wave with axis near 119W is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 120W and 125W.

A tropical wave with axis near 139W is moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N99W to 10N110W to 12N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to 09N137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 14N between 102W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 79W and 92W, and within 150 nm north of the monsoon trough between 100W and 103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Distant surface high pressure well NW of the area is maintaining a weak ridge across the Baja California offshore waters. This is supporting mainly gentle NW to N breezes across the waters off Baja California Norte, with light and variable winds off the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Manzanillo. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through the weekend, with fresh winds pulsing south of Punta Eugenia beginning Fri evening. Elsewhere, a trough extending from complex low pressure over the Great Basin is producing strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California. Winds will remain fresh through early Thu, then diminish to gentle speeds later Thu.

Over the southern waters, overnight scatterometer data showed a broad area of fresh winds associated with a tropical wave with an axis analyzed near 98.5W. This wave will continue moving westward through tonight with the associated winds passing west of the offshore waters. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds are expected to persist through the upcoming weekend, with the strongest winds occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak around 8 ft each morning well downstream of the Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail over the waters south of the monsoon trough. A set of long period S to SW swell will propagate northward across the region Sat night through Sun night, with seas peaking around 8 ft off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge across the northern waters is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade winds north of 15N and west of 130W per overnight scatterometer data. A 07 UTC altimeter pass showed seas to 8 ft near 16N140W. High pressure north of the area will strengthen overnight, expanding the coverage of fresh to locally strong trades with seas building to 9 ft.

Elsewhere, SW swell is producing seas to 8 ft south of 02S and west of 110W. Seas will subside by Thu as this swell decays.

$$ Reinhart

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