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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270237
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 20.0N 115.0W at 27/0300 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center of Celia, except within 240 nm in the northwest quadrant. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W N of 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave axis is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and crosses near the Guatemala/Mexico border. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen ahead of the wave from 10N to 14N between 92W and 96W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward- northwestward during the next several days.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 11N86W to 08N103W to 14N105W, then continues south of Celia from 14N110W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 80W and 90W, from 08N to 12N between 92W and 102W, and from 05N to 12N between 102W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 135W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the waters outside of Celia. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will begin to subside between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and continue to propagate across the offshore waters of southern Baja California tonight and Mon. As Celia moves away from the offshore forecast waters by Mon night, seas will continue to subside across the region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the week. A tropical wave will move across the waters south of Mexico through mid-week with the potential for increasing winds and seas with it.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally winds are occurring in the Papagayo region in the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the week. Seas may build to 7 or 8 ft in SW swell across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon night near the passing tropical wave.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds are observed under the influence of this high north of 20N and west of 127W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7 ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.

For the forecast, other than the weakening Celia, a ridge will persist across the forecast area west of 125W and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through at least the middle of the week, then the ridge will build again across the offshore waters of Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours.

$$ Lewitsky

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