000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270237
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 20.0N 115.0W at 27/0300
UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center
of Celia, except within 240 nm in the northwest quadrant. Celia
is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next few days. Gradual weakening
is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone within the next couple of days. Swells will affect
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja
California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during
the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 92W N of 04N, moving west at around 10
kt. The wave axis is located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and crosses near the Guatemala/Mexico
border. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
ahead of the wave from 10N to 14N between 92W and 96W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves generally westward-
northwestward during the next several days.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at
11N86W to 08N103W to 14N105W, then continues south of Celia
from 14N110W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 80W and 90W, from 08N
to 12N between 92W and 102W, and from 05N to 12N between 102W
and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 135W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of
the waters outside of Celia. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the
waters outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and
northern Gulf of California.
For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will begin to subside
between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the
entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and continue to
propagate across the offshore waters of southern Baja California
tonight and Mon. As Celia moves away from the offshore forecast
waters by Mon night, seas will continue to subside across the
region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the
week. A tropical wave will move across the waters south of Mexico
through mid-week with the potential for increasing winds and seas
with it.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally winds are occurring in the Papagayo region in
the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore
waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow
increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to
moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the
week. Seas may build to 7 or 8 ft in SW swell across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon night near the
passing tropical wave.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds
are observed under the influence of this high north of 20N and
west of 127W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7
ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.
For the forecast, other than the weakening Celia, a ridge will
persist across the forecast area west of 125W and north of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough through at least the middle of the week,
then the ridge will build again across the offshore waters of
Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly swell
will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the
Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours.
$$
Lewitsky
