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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010302
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these eastern Pacific waters, with seas in the 6-10 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters N of 10N between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 80W. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to the Bay of Campeche. The low level circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda has dissipated over Guatemala today, but the focused area of circulation within the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours, where clusters of heavy rainfall continue.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the low pressure remnants of Amanda near 16N90W to 13N93W to low pres near 07N120W to low pres near 09N131W TO 08N140W.. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05.5N between 81.5W and 87W and 07N to 10 between 87W and 98W. Scattered to numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted N of 10N between 87W and 96W and from 07N to 11N between 98W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted from 06N to 09N between 104W and 135W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted from 06N to 10N W of 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre.

The circulation around the Central American Gyre is funneling winds through the Chivela pass across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is producing gap winds to around 25 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish below 25 kt by early Monday.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California.

The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing active weather over the southern Mexico offshore waters, which will continue through the upcoming week. Strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over the northern waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre.

Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American Gyre, moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 02N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the area.

The Central American Gyre is centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. This feature is bringing active weather over the offshore waters of Central America, which will continue through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the northeastern waters. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 15N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 103W and 121W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds prevail elsewhere W of 121W. Seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range.

High pressure will weaken slightly through Mon. A surface low is drifting into the far NW portion of the discussion waters where it will weaken by Tuesday and dissipate by Wed. High pres will then build it its wake.

$$ Stripling

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