539
AXPZ20 KNHC 011416
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure across eastern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough is supporting strong gale-force winds up to 45 kt,
and seas to near 18 ft, in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will
very gradually diminish, falling below gale-force by Tue
morning. Another gale force gap wind event is possible in
Tehuantepec starting the middle of the week.
Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo will reach near-gale to gale-force tonight
through Tue morning as an Arctic high pressure building over the
eastern United States helps tighten the pressure gradient. Seas
will peak near 12 ft with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N78W to 05.5N90W to
06.5N121W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N121W to 04N130W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08.5N
between 77W and 83W, and from 07N to 10N between 124W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
early this week. Please see the Special Features section above
for more details.
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient
between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface
trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate NW winds in
the northern Gulf of California, and offshore Baja California N
of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are slight to moderate over these
waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate
seas.
For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of NW
swell will impact the waters W of the Baja California peninsula
late tonight through Tue. Another set of large NW swell will
enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A Gale Warning is expected for the Gulf of Papagayo starting
tonight. Please see the Special Features section above for more
details.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Papagayo region, as well
as in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale-force
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough
to very rough seas over the western Guatemala and El Salvador
waters through the early part of the week, and then again late
this week with another gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event will
merge with this area to maintain rough and confused seas early
this week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds along with rough
seas will impact the Gulf of Panama through Tue night, with
similar conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front is over the NW waters from 30N132.5W to 24N140W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this front. The front
has ushered in a set of large NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 14
ft range behind the front. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails
across the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate trades north of the ITCZ to near 18N and west
of about 125W. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and moderate seas in
mixed swell, prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken
and dissipate later today. The very rough seas greater than 12
ft will impact the waters N of 20N and W of 130W through today,
with the rough seas greater than 8 ft spreading SE to cover the
waters NW of 04N140W to 30N120W by early Mon before starting to
subside below 8 ft. Seas with this swell will subside below 8 ft
by the middle of the week. Another set of large NW swell will
move into the NW waters early Tue, and bring rough to very rough
seas across the same general waters through the remainder of the
week. Fresh to strong southerly winds will impact the NW waters
much of this week with a gale-force system just to the NW of
30N140W.
$$
Lewitsky
