489
AXPZ20 KNHC 181559
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Large NW Swell: New large and significant swell with
seas of 12 ft or greater is just N of 29N and propagating
southward, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it,
across the waters N fo 08N and W of 114W. Seas of 12 ft or
greater will cover the waters from 26N to 30N between Baja
California and 140W by tonight while peaking around 15 ft near
30N between 120W and 130W, then gradually decaying back below 12
ft by Thu evening. Looking ahead, another significant and large
NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the upcoming
weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 08.5N79W to 09N88W. The ITCZ extends from
04N88.5W to 01S120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 82W and 103W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to
SE across the offshore waters. A locally tight pressure gradient
between the ridging and troughing near SW Mexico supports
moderate to fresh NW-N winds across nearshore Baja California.
While fresh to near-gale SW winds prevail over the northern Gulf
of California. Seas are 6 to 10 ft within these winds, except
for 3 to 6 ft over the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to
gentle variable winds prevail with seas 2 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure will continue build in across
the waters through Fri, producing fresh to locally strong
northerly winds nearshore Baja California through Thu night.
Strong to near-gale force SW wind over the northern Gulf of
California will prevail through late tonight. Fresh winds will
dominate the central and southern Gulf of California Sat through
Sun night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. NW swell will
continue to build across the waters of Baja California today,
then become reinforced tonight through the end of the week,
decaying during the upcoming weekend.
Looking ahead, long range model guidance indicates the potential for
at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,
although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay
tuned as we get closer to this next potential event.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across
the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of
Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula, along
with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with
seas 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate
seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure
builds across Central America from the north, continuing through
Thu night, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to
strong winds may return there late in the weekend into early next
week. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from
the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through
today. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas will change little through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for
another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.
A cold front is analyzed N of the area. Fresh to locally strong
associated westerly winds are pushing ahead of the front along
with very rough swells enclosing on 28.5N. A ridge extends across
the waters from near 30N137W to offshore SW Mexico. Deep layered
troughing prevails near 135W and the W-central waters with
scattered moderate convection from 10.5N to 25.5N between 132W
and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale-force winds cover the
waters roughly from 12.5N to 24N between 122W and 140W. Winds are
mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters.
For seas, rough seas cover the waters from 08N to 30N between
114W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 11N to 23N between 131W
and 140W near the troughing.
For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters N of
the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the
W-central waters near 140W. This scenario will support a broad
area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near
24N and W of 130W through early Fri, along with rough to very
rough seas. Expect active showers and thunderstorms to accompany
these increasing trades. Marine conditions should improve by the
end of the week and into the weekend as the disturbance
dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens. New, large and
significant swells may move into the NW waters by the end of the
weekend and into early next week.
$$
KRV
