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AXPZ20 KNHC 031535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building across the Great Basin region of the U.S. will increase northerly winds in the Gulf of California through Fri night. Peak winds are expected today in the northern Gulf, with gale-force winds likely N of 29N. Strong gusty NE winds are also expected on the west side of the Baja California peninsula mainly from 26N-29N with frequent gusts to gale force possible. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.html for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong northerly gap winds and building seas are expected across the Tehuantepec region most of the forecast period. These winds will be associated first with a cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico, then with a surface trough developing north of the central Bay of Campeche on Sat. Strong to gale force winds are expected tonight and Fri, and then again Sun through Mon night. Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with this gap wind event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.html for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 07N95W to 10N114W to 08N129W. The ITCZ continues from 08N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 120 nm either side of the convergence zone axis in the following areas: between 81W and 90W, between 90W and 97W, between 103W and 107W, and between 114W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas in the 6-7 ft range prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte and N of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to strong winds will funnel through the Baja California Norte passes into the offshore waters through Fri as strong high pressure builds over the Great Basin region. Strong northerly winds and building seas, with a maximum of 7 to 11 ft, are expected in the Gulf of California through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of days, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhwere, light to gentle winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the trough axis, through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 36N134W dominates the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds from 09N to 20N west of 130W, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell across this area.

Large long period NW swell will propagate across most of the waters N of the equator and W of 120W today, building seas to 12-15 ft. Sea heights will diminish tonight and Fri as the area of swell propagates to the east-southeast and decays.

$$ GR

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