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079
AXPZ20 KNHC 302101
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms located centered several hundred nautical miles south southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with an 1010 mb area of low pressure near 13.5N115.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 114W and 119W. The latest scatterometer passes indicate winds to gale force north of the low, and a gale warning has been issued in relation to this disturbance. While this system still lacks a well- defined circulation, environmental conditions remain generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days. This system is moving towards the west- northwest at 10 to 15 kt and will be moving towards cooler waters by this weekend, where additional development is unlikely after that time. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

Atlantic basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is currently in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to approach Central America from the southern Caribbean Sea as a tropical cyclone by the end of the week, moving across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean this weekend with potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones from Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, and then to the offshore waters of Mexico offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W from 04N northward, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W/116W from 02N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is centered along the wave and convection is described in the Special Features section above.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Papagayo region near 10N85W to 08N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N east of 82W, and from 05N to 12N between 88W and 98W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 120W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across the offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec waters Sun and Sun night, continuing west-northwest offshore Mexico thereafter.

Fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the area. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across the offshore waters, reaching 7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range in the Gulf of California north of the entrance.

For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, fresh to strong N-NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh this afternoon through Fri morning. Winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will increase and pulse to moderate to fresh by the end of the week into the weekend, while a moderate NW swell builds across the same area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat, and then across the offshore waters of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala this weekend.

Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region with enhanced trade wind flow in the SW Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds are offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, reaching 7 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Fri morning with little change elsewhere through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a low pressure system generating gale force winds centered several hundred nautical miles south southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

The remnant 1016 mb low of Celia is located near 24N126W with no deep convection, moderate winds, and seas around 7 ft. Winds will continue to diminish as the remnant low opens into a trough over the next day or two.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are west of a line from 30N122W to 15N140W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week.

$$ AL

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