708
AXPZ20 KNHC 280815
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 28 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of
organization near a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. This 1008 mb
low, EP90, is centered near 13N103W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 97W
and 105W. While the system sill lacks a well-defined circulation,
environmental conditions are favorable for further development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
today as the low moves generally west- northwestward at 5 to 10
kt. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next
48 hours. A Gale Warning is in effect for offshore waters from
Guerrero to Jalisco in association with this developing system.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N81W to 13N103W to 11N115W.
The ITCZ axis continues from 11N115W to 07N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with the low pressure located near 13N103W,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found
from 05N to 10N between 118W and 131W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 105W and 110W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information a
Gale Warning that is in effect in association with low pressure
offshore southern Mexico that is expected to develop into a
tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
A ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 34N132W,
extends over the Baja California offshore waters, reaching the
Revillagigedo Islands. This system continues to support moderate
to locally fresh NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula,
with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds currently dominate the
Gulf of California, extending southward to Cabo Corrientes. Over
the outer offshore waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan, fresh winds
are increasing, and rough seas are forming in association with
the gradual development of the aforementioned tropical system.
For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through early Fri producing
moderate to locally fresh NW winds, with moderate seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region .
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds with moderate seas in SW swell
prevail. Locally higher winds and seas are likely occurring near
the convective activity along the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with
fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central and SW
Caribbean will continue to support fresh NE to E winds in the
Papagayo region tonight. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
persist N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate
S to SW winds prevailing to the S of it into Fri night. Long
period SW swell will build across the offshore forecast waters
late this week, likely leading to rough seas south of the
Galapagos Islands late Fri into Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
Please see the Special Features section above for information a
Gale Warning that is in effect in association with low pressure
offshore southern Mexico that is expected to develop into a
tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
High pressure of 1025 mb dominates most of the waters N of the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W while lower pressures persist
to the east related to possible development of the tropical
system. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas
prevail under the influence of the ridge.
For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across most of the forecast waters N of the
ITCZ/Monsoon trough and W of 110W through the end of the week as
the high pressure center remains nearly stationary over the NW
corner of the forecast region. This will support moderate to
locally fresh trade winds. Farther south, a new set of long
period SW swell will cross the equator today, building seas to 8
to 9 ft over most of the waters S of 10N between 100W and 122W
Fri. Looking ahead, the high pressure may strengthen and shift NW
this weekend, leading to increasing northerly winds in the NW
waters.
$$
Konarik
