287
AXPZ20 KNHC 300919
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Alvin is centered near 16.6N 108.3W at 30/0900
UTC, moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that dry air
has begin to intrude into the system. As as result, the banding
features have become less defined in appearance and with
multiple gaps in the convection. Increasing numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 16N to 18N between 106W-
109W. Deteriorating numerous moderate convection is within the
banding features from 18N to 22N between 105W-109W. Alvin is
expected to turn toward the north-northwest on Fri and continue
through the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a
post-tropical low on Sat. Swells generated by Alvin will affect
portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and the southern
Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Alvin is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves to near 17.9N
108.8W this afternoon, to near 19.5N 109.2W late tonight with
maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, weaken to a remnant
low near 21.1N 109.4W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt, reach to near 22.8N 109.5W late Sat night, to
near 24.6N 109.4W Sun afternoon and dissipate late Sun night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Alvin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N78W to 09N91W to
13N102W. It resumes to the SW of Alvin near 10N112W to 07N120W
to 08N132W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with
Tropical Storm Alvin, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 93W-97W, and from 08N
to 14N between 98W-100W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 12N between 102W-107W, and within 60 nm of the trough
between 125W-129W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Alvin.
To the NW of Alvin, high pressure dominates the offshore
forecast waters off Baja California, supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds along with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds are
noted over the Gulf of California, extending further south to
vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. To the SE of the impacts of Alvin,
offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas, mainly gentle SE winds and moderate
seas in mixed swell prevail.
For the forecast, aside from impacts due to Tropical Storm
Alvin, the pressure gradient will relax offshore Baja California
into the weekend allowing for winds to diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds. Light to gentle N to NE winds will be
elsewhere over throughout the weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh E winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle winds with moderate seas in SW swell prevail.
Locally higher winds and seas are likely occurring near the
convective activity along the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with
fresh to strong trades across the southwestern and central
Caribbean will continue to support fresh NE to E winds in the
Papagayo region today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
persist N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW
winds prevailing to the S of it into the weekend. Long period SW
swell will propagate through the offshore forecast waters,
leading to rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
from tonight through Sun.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
Please see the Special Features section above for information
relating to Tropical Storm Alvin.
High pressure of 1026 mb is analyzed near 31N138W. A ridge
extends southeastward from the high to near 18N118W. Lower
pressures are to the E and SE of the ridge related to Tropical
Storm Alvin. The present gradient in place is maintaining gentle
to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas, except for moderate
to fresh NE winds within the trade wind zone region.
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain
in control of the weather pattern across most of the forecast
waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and W of 110W through
tonight. This will support moderate to locally fresh trade
winds. Farther south, a new set of long-period SW swell will
bring seas to 8 to 9 ft over most of the waters S of 10N between
100W and 122W starting today. A new and stronger high pressure
center that will shift eastward to the N of the region will help
tighten the gradient inducing fresh N to NE winds over the NW
part of the area beginning late on Sat. Seas will build with
these winds on Sun.
$$
Aguirre
