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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180311
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
228 UTC Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 06N90W TO 04N100W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, that continues W-NW from 04N100W to 06N120W to 07N140W. No significant convection is noted.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S orientated trough analyzed between 115W and 118W. There is a chance a weak surface low will form along the trough near 26N116W tonight and persist through Sun. A moderate to fresh N breeze is currently observed elsewhere E of the trough to along 105W. A cold front will sweep quickly E across the area N of 28N tonight through Mon night eroding the weak low and its parent trough. A post-frontal ridge will set up from 23N116W to 18N107W by Mon evening as high pressure strengthens resulting in a fresh to strong NW breeze spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte on Mon, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 13 ft. The pressure gradient will relax some on Tue.

Gulf of California: Strong SW-W winds will develop across the waters from 29.5N to 31N on Sun evening in association with a cold front. The strong to near gale winds will clock to the NW behind the front and persist through Mon night.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night, with these strong northerly winds resuming on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to occasionally near gale force NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming week, with seas building to 9 ft as far SW as 10N91W.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh nocturnal N winds expected through Thu night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N while light to gentle SW winds forecast S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. These seas will gradually subside through Sun, then build again beginning Sun night as strong trades develop across the tropical waters W of 130W while strong N winds spread S across the northern waters in the wake of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula.

$$ Formosa

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